The 2024 Presidential Campaign Kickoff

The 2024 presidential campaigns are unofficially underway. With Donald Trump’s near sweep of the Republican primaries on Tuesday and Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech on Thursday, there is no longer any doubt that 2024 will be a presidential rematch of 2020. [PS: The Democratic candidate has changed but the competing visions have not.]

The two candidates will attempt to frame their campaigns in terms of specific issues they believe will energize their respective bases and appeal to undecided voters. However, this campaign is not really about issues, although their differences on issues do matter. The U.S. presidential campaign of 2024 will be a contest between two competing visions for the future of the country. The voters will choose between democracy and autocracy.

Different people see and interpret the same things differently. They have different perceptions of the same reality. That’s why we have the Democratic and Republican parties and conservative and liberal factions within both. Democracy is about allowing a diversity of perceptions to be expressed through elections and governing. In a democracy, candidates and program proposals that align with the perceptions of those of the largest percentages of people will win elections and will have more influence on government. Autocracy is about allowing one person to govern.  In an autocracy, the autocrat decides what policies and programs are implemented and designs the electoral process to ensure reelection.

Intelligent, thoughtful people disapprove of the policies Biden has implemented and his proposed solutions to problems such as inflation and border security. However, there is no political leader in the past 50 years, Democrat or Republican, that has been a stronger advocate of democracy than Joe Biden, in word and deed.

If Biden is reelected the U.S. will still have a democratic form of government. At the end of his second term, a majority of the people may feel it is time for a change in leadership. In that case, they will have an opportunity to elect a president who promises to lead the nation in a different direction. If Biden succeeds in restoring fairness and integrity to elections, the nation will be more democratic in 2028 than it is today.

Autocracy is a system of government in which one person has absolute power. Donald Trump promises to “make America great again,” not to lead the country back to greatness. His promises are not about convincing the majority of Americans to support his policies. His promises are about what he is going to do if he is reelected president.

MAGA Republicans are not working to convince the American people that their proposed solutions to problems, such as border security and inflation, are better than Biden’s. They are convinced that Trump will solve the problems they care about and are working to discourage and disenfranchise potential Biden voters to ensure that Trump wins the election, regardless of the will of the majority.

Today’s Republican party is the party of Donald Trump.  Republicans in Congress, with rare exceptions, do or don’t do what Trump tells them to do or not do. People in government are afraid to oppose him, not only because of political threats to their careers but physical threats to themselves and their families by Trump supporters.

The Republican party’s positions on issues are whatever Donald Trump says they are on any given day. MAGA Republications can’t take negotiable positions on specific issues because they don’t know what Trump is going to say next. Their mission, by default, is to work to destroy public confidence in the democratic form of government to pave the way for the American autocracy of Donald Trump.

Trump has made it very clear that he plans to rule as an autocrat, not as a president. He will not tolerate anyone who questions him and will punish those who have opposed him. His appointees to the Supreme Court appear willing to enable his autocratic agenda, as they have on abortion, voting rights, affirmative action, and other partisan issues.

The most important recent Court ruling will make it impossible to ever bar Trump from public office for encouraging, enabling, and participating in the insurrection of January 6, 2021. The Supreme Court has agreed to consider Trump’s claim that Presidents cannot be held accountable for any official action they may take, even if it is otherwise illegal. If the Court agrees, Trump will be free to coerce, threaten, or eliminate anyone in Congress who opposes him or any candidate who attempts to replace him. He will be free to reshape the electoral process, just as Putin has done, to ensure that he is reelected as many times as he chooses to run.

In future posts, I plan to cover specific issues that will be important in determining how the currently uncommitted will vote and whether they vote or stay home. As an economist, I will focus on economic issues like inflation, interest rates, budget deficits, and corporate consolidation. However, the economy is inseparable from government and government is inseparable from the fundamental principles upon which the United States of America was built and still stands.

There has never been a more important election at least since the election of Abraham Lincoln before the Civil War.  If you have lost all hope for democracy in America, and believe Trump is the solution to the nation’s problems, then vote for him. But if he is elected and you end up disappointed, don’t expect to have an opportunity to vote him out of office in 2028.

Regardless of whether people agree with me on specific issues, there can be no logical denial that this presidential election is a time to choose between democracy and autocracy—between rule of the people and rule by one person.

John Ikerd